Book page Appendix A: Commercial Failure Diagnostic

Appendix A

Commercial Failure Diagnostic

Introduced in Chapter 5. Reused in Chapters 17, 21, 23, and 24.

The diagnostic replaces “nobody is buying” with the specific point at which the path from buyer to retained customer breaks. Treatment follows diagnosis; the remedy that helps one failure state hurts another.

cannot find buyer → no reply → will not try → tries but does not value → values but will not pay → pays but does not stay

Answer the six questions in order. For each, write the evidence that says yes. Stop at the first question you cannot support with observed behavior. That is the current commercial frontier, and it is where the next test belongs. Do not guess about anything after it.

  1. Can I identify plausible buyers? Not a persona. People I can name or describe by observable conditions, who own the consequence of the problem. Evidence:
  2. Do those buyers respond when I reach them? Replies, not opens. Evidence:
  3. Will they undertake a real evaluation? Against a real case, with their own data or workflow. Evidence:
  4. Do they experience meaningful value? The promised outcome occurred, in their terms. Evidence:
  5. Will they pay under real terms? The standard offer at the standard price, not a favor. Evidence:
  6. After paying, do they continue to judge the exchange worthwhile? Activation, continued use, renewal. Evidence:

Reading the result. A break at 1 or 2 is a buyer, message, path, or trust problem; more traffic may help and may not. A break at 3 is an offer or trust problem. A break at 4 is a product, activation, or use-case problem. A break at 5 is a price, urgency, purchase-moment, or economic-value problem. A break at 6 is a retention problem, and more acquisition will make it more expensive. If two states both look broken, the earlier one is the constraint; the later one cannot be diagnosed until the earlier one passes.

Common misuse. Placing the app at the furthest point you hope it reaches rather than the furthest point you have observed. If you have never asked anyone to pay, the diagnostic stops at 5 regardless of how much usage you have.